Brazil: Elections Reveal a Divided Country
The first round of Brazilian presidential elections shows a regionally and socially divided country.
Joachim Becker - Oct. 20, 2006
Inácio Lula da Silva of the Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT) missed the direct re-election in the first round of the presidential elections on October 1, 2006, by a very narrow margin. He won 48,6% of the votes and he has to face his main competitor the ultra-liberal Geraldo Alckmin (Partido da Social Democracia Brasileira – PSDB) in the second round at the end of October. Alckmin got 41,6% of the votes. Heloísa Helena of the Partido do Socialismo e Liberdade (PSOL) – she was expelled from PT because she did not accept the party line on the liberal reform of the pension of the state employees – came in third with 6,9% of the votes.
Lula's government continued the liberally inclined economic policies of the preceding government of F.H. Cardoso (PSDB). It did not restrict capital flows and maintained extremely high interest rates in order to keep capital within Brazil. High interest rates were damaging to industry. Likewise there were no strong fiscal impulses for the domestic market. Industry more or less stagnated. Urban unemployment remained high. Thus neither the urban working class nor most of the salaried middle class gained much from Lula's presidency. Nevertheless some measures of the Lula government were favourable to them like new arrangements for consumer credits or the strengthening of public education.
Still Lula, a former metal worker and trade union leader, remained popular with the poor. They continued to consider him one of them. His government systematically spread social programmes in favour of the very poor. Though the employment chances of the poor did not improve, their income increased through state transfers. As a consequence they voted in favour of Lula.
Alckmin represents mainly the interests of São Paulo's financial capital. His program is radically neo-liberal and pro-US. Though he was not perceived as a strong candidate even in his own political camp, he did not score a bad result in the first round. He is not very likely to win the second round although it is not entirely impossible.
In the governors' election, PT results were not very positive either though there was one great surprise, the election of PT's Jacques Wagner as a governor in Bahia (in the Northeast). PT kept two states (Acre, Piauí) and gained – apart from Bahoa – the governorship in Sergipe as well. The former PT stronghold Rio Grande do Sul proved to be a much more difficult terrain for PT than in the past. There PT pursued much more audacious policies than at the national level, introducing a participatory budget at the state level and favouring small and middle enterprises over transnational corporations in its economic policies during the governorship of Olívio Dutra (1999-2002). Dutra's policies threatened the clientele networks of the right. In Rio Grande do Sul, the traditional right feared that it might structurally lose its capability to form a majority and has been shown a high degree of unity against PT since then. In spite of national adversity and a rather cohesive right at the state level, Dutra made it narrowly into the second round of this year's governors elections. He owed his advantage over the present governor Germano Rigotto mostly his good results in Porto Alegre (31,6%).
In constellations of a rather narrow margin, the final outcome of the second round will to some extent depend on how voters of PSOL will vote. Nevertheless the election results of the first election round should be a warning to PT. They clearly demonstrate the limits of a strategy that is primarily built on a supportive social policy.
PT Loses Heartlands
Lula scored an overwhelming victory in all states of the poor northeast where he received two thirds of the votes. In Brazil's industrial heartland, São Paulo and the states of the south, however, Lula's results were rather poor. The cradle of PT had been in these areas. The shift in PT's electoral base, which is visible to some extent in the parliamentary elections as well, needs some explaining.Lula's government continued the liberally inclined economic policies of the preceding government of F.H. Cardoso (PSDB). It did not restrict capital flows and maintained extremely high interest rates in order to keep capital within Brazil. High interest rates were damaging to industry. Likewise there were no strong fiscal impulses for the domestic market. Industry more or less stagnated. Urban unemployment remained high. Thus neither the urban working class nor most of the salaried middle class gained much from Lula's presidency. Nevertheless some measures of the Lula government were favourable to them like new arrangements for consumer credits or the strengthening of public education.
The Poor Voted for Lula
The numerous scandals of political corruption, however, were not well received in the traditional strongholds of the PT. Party militancy declined. While there had been flying many red PT flags from windows in Porto Alegre in earlier years, the only red flags one would encounter this August were those of "Internacional" – one of the city's famous football clubs which had just won the Copa Libertadora.Still Lula, a former metal worker and trade union leader, remained popular with the poor. They continued to consider him one of them. His government systematically spread social programmes in favour of the very poor. Though the employment chances of the poor did not improve, their income increased through state transfers. As a consequence they voted in favour of Lula.
Regional Divide – Social Divide
The regional divide in the election results reflects a social divide. PSOL which had emerged out of the left wing of PT could only to a limited extent profit from the disenchantment among former PT voters. Its electoral platform is very narrow focusing on the improvement of public services. It reflects the demands of several public service unions. Its sympathisers can be found in particular in the (upper) middle class.Alckmin represents mainly the interests of São Paulo's financial capital. His program is radically neo-liberal and pro-US. Though he was not perceived as a strong candidate even in his own political camp, he did not score a bad result in the first round. He is not very likely to win the second round although it is not entirely impossible.
In the governors' election, PT results were not very positive either though there was one great surprise, the election of PT's Jacques Wagner as a governor in Bahia (in the Northeast). PT kept two states (Acre, Piauí) and gained – apart from Bahoa – the governorship in Sergipe as well. The former PT stronghold Rio Grande do Sul proved to be a much more difficult terrain for PT than in the past. There PT pursued much more audacious policies than at the national level, introducing a participatory budget at the state level and favouring small and middle enterprises over transnational corporations in its economic policies during the governorship of Olívio Dutra (1999-2002). Dutra's policies threatened the clientele networks of the right. In Rio Grande do Sul, the traditional right feared that it might structurally lose its capability to form a majority and has been shown a high degree of unity against PT since then. In spite of national adversity and a rather cohesive right at the state level, Dutra made it narrowly into the second round of this year's governors elections. He owed his advantage over the present governor Germano Rigotto mostly his good results in Porto Alegre (31,6%).
In constellations of a rather narrow margin, the final outcome of the second round will to some extent depend on how voters of PSOL will vote. Nevertheless the election results of the first election round should be a warning to PT. They clearly demonstrate the limits of a strategy that is primarily built on a supportive social policy.
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